Dokumentation
At bygge en model som DREAM fordrer en del teoretiske overvejelser og klargøring af datagrundlag. Hertil kommer, at den praktiske brug af det samlede system af programmer og data, der udgør modellen, stiller relativt høje krav til forståelsen af samspillet mellem teori og data.
Dele af modellens teoretiske fundament og metodemæssige overvejelser er beskrevet i rapporter og arbejdspapirer, hvis primære rolle er at redegøre for resultaterne af en analyse af et givet emne. Eksempler på dette er den metode vi bruger til at fastlægge modellens parametre (den såkaldte dynamiske kalibrering) og modelleringen af DREAMs pensionskasser. Derfor har nogle af de dokumenter, der er samlet på denne side, karakter af rapporter snarere end egentlig dokumentation.
Dokumentation (foreløbig version)
DREAM har skrevet en foreløbig dokumentation af DREAM-modellen, som kan ses nedefor. Dokumentationen er på engelsk og er inddelt i kapitler svarende til modellens opbygning. Dokumentationen findes på nuværende tidspunkt i en foreløbig version, som ikke er fuldstændig opdateret i forhold til de faktiske modelligninger, ligesom enkelte afsnit ikke er færdigskrevne.
Kapitel 1, 2 og 3: Indholdsfortegnelse, forord, introduktion samt oversigt over modellen
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 1, 2 og 3
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
0. Contents
1. Preface
2. Introduction
2.1 A note on dating conventions
3. An Overview of the Model
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Producers
3.1.2 Households
3.1.3 The labour market
3.1.4 The government sector
3.1.5 International relations
3.1.6 Financial markets and equilibrium
3.1.7 Pension systems
3.2 DREAMs base-line projection
3.2.1 Population
3.2.2 Aggregate macroeconomic development
3.2.3 Composition of GDP
3.2.4 Prices
3.2.5 Government finances
3.2.6 National wealth
Kapitel 4: Producenternes adfærd
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 4
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
4. Producers behavior
4.1 The value of the firm
4.2 The problem of the private firm
4.2.1 Production function and nest structure of the firm
4.2.2 Investment and capital stock
4.2.3 Demand faced by the firm
4.3 Solving the problem of the private firms
4.3.1 Intertemporal optimization
4.3.2 Intertemporal optimization
4.4 Symmetric equilibrium
4.5 Aggregation across firms
4.5.1 Intertemporal optimization
4.5.2 Intertemporal optimization
4.6 Government production
4.6.1 Solving the problem of step 1
4.6.2 The output price of the government sector
4.7 Appendix: Equations describing private and government production i growth- and inflation-corrected terms
4.8 Appendix: Production technology
Kapitel 5: Husholdningerne
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 5
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
5. Households
5.1 Overview
5.2 Construction and assumptions
5.3 Preferences
5.3.1 Period utility
5.3.2 CES subutility
5.3.3 Lifetime utility for planning households
5.3.4 Bequest motive
5.4 Income and budget
5.4.1 Non-capital income
5.4.2 Capital income and asset accumulation
5.5 Consumption and saving
5.5.1 Consolidated budget
5.5.2 The Keynes-Ramsey rule
5.5.3 The bequest decision
5.6 Labour supply
5.6.1 Union model
5.7 Non-planning households
5.8 Consumption split
5.9 Appendix: Equations describing household behaviour in growth- and inflation-corrected terms
Kapitel 6: Pensioner
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 6
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
6. Pensions
6.1 The budget conditions of the pension fund
6.1.1 Retirement pensions
6.1.2 Spouse pensions
6.1.3 Disablement pensions
6.2 Forecasting, pension undertakings and principles af precaution
6.2.1 Actuarial constants
6.2.2 Pension undertakings
6.2.3 Principles of precaution
6.3 Derivation of individual pensions and premiums
6.3.1 Spouse pensions
6.3.2 Disablement pensions
6.3.3 Pension undertakings
6.3.4 Retirement pensions
6.4 The bonus
6.4.1 Overview of required assets
6.5 Evolution of pensions
6.6 Average pensions
6.6.1 Non-retired members
6.6.2 Retired members
6.6.3 Disabled members
6.6.4 Spouse pensioners
6.6.5 Member stocks
Kapitel 7: Den offentlige sektor
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 7
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
7. The government sector
7.1 Government revenue
7.1.1 Gross operating surplus
7.1.2 Land rent
7.1.3 Withdrawals from quasi corporations
7.1.4 Indirect taxes
7.1.5 Source taxes
7.1.6 Other revenue sources
7.2 Government expenditure
7.2.1 Government consumption
7.2.2 Investment expenditure
7.2.3 Subsidies
7.2.4 Transfers
7.3 The primary budget and government debt
7.4 Projection of government sector variables
7.4.1 Special indexation equations used in conection with the Danish tax freeze
7.4.2 Indexation of government consumption
7.4.3 Indexation according to wage regulation
7.4.4 Indexation of current and capital trandfers following GDP
7.4.5 Lump-sum transfers resulting from the calibration process
7.5 Sustainability of fiscal policy
7.6 Appendix: Equations describing government sector in growth- and inflation-corrected terms
7.6.1 Government revenue
7.6.2 Government expenditure
7.6.3 The primary budget and government debt
7.6.4 Projection of government sector variables
Kapitel 8: Øvrige sektorer
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 8
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
8. Miccellaneous
8.1 The foreign sector
8.2 Equilibrium conditions
8.3 National account measures
8.4 Financial assets
8.5 Steady state
8.6 Appendix: Equations describing miscellaneous behaviour in growht- and inflation-corrected terms
Kapitel 9: Datakilder og kalibrering
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 9
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
9. Data sources and calibration
9.1 Technique of calibration process
9.1.1 Static calibration
9.1.2 Dynamic calibration
9.1.3 Dynamic calibration and the base-line scenario
9.2 Procedure and results
9.2.1 Population
9.2.2 Labour market
9.2.3 Capital stocks and depreciation rates
9.2.4 Production
9.2.5 Final demand
9.2.6 Government finances
9.2.7 Growth, inflation, interest rates and the risk premium og shares
9.2.8 Labour-market pension funds, private pensions, ATP, SP and LD funds
9.2.9 Household wealth and saving
9.2.10 Foreign assets
Kapitel 10: Dynamiske effekter af politikeksperimenter samt eksogene shock
Foreløbig DREAM dokumentation kapitel 10
DREAM
Dokumentation, april 2008
10. Dynamic effects of policy experiments and exogenous shocks
10.1 Effects of a permanent rise in the (real) interest rate
10.2 Effects of a permanent rise in inflation and nominal interest rate
10.3 Effects of a permanent rise in productivity growth
10.4 Effects of a rise in the risk premium
10.5 Effects of a permanent decline in mark-ups
10.6 Effects of a permanent fall in the structural unemployment rate
10.7 A rise in the bottom-bracket tax rate
10.8 A rise in the VAT rates
10.9 A corporation tax hike
10.10 A rise in land taxation
10.11 A rise in the tax on owner-occupied dwellings
10.12 A change in the tax on interest income
10.13 A rise in the tax on pension funds income
10.14 A rise in the tax on resource revenue from yhe North Sea
10.15 A 5-year extension og the tax freeze
Øvrig dokumentation
Arbejdspapirer